I hesitate to write anything about the political upheavals in Tunisia and Egypt - my ignorance prevents me from waxing confidently about the future. It does seem to me however that we are witnessing something on the scale of the collapse of Communist power in eastern Europe. Just one more slight push, and the Egyptian regime will fall, to be replaced by who knows what...that's the great unknown. All is contingent; no empire, no system is flawless and permanent. For thirty years, Mubarak's regime has seemed a fixed point in our dream of a stable - that is, America friendly - Middle East. That is now revealed as an illusion. Even if this revolution fails, it will have so destabilized Egypt that it's fall will come sooner rather than later, and what passes for our Grand Strategy in the region will fall with it.
Of course, our Grand Strategy is no strategy at all. We go with the wind, supporting any strongman who will promise 'stability' in the region, until, at the last, they outlive their usefulness. Our only point of principle is support for Israel, which also allows us to use whatever leverage we have at any moment to reign them in when they want to unleash their air force. [Yes, I think Israel would be far more aggressive and expansionist without our involvement.] Beyond 'Support Israel', based too often on dubious reasons having more to do with apocalyptic fantasies than realistic policy, we really have no carefully thought out approach to the region. Hence our panic in the face of Mubarak's possible fall. We just don't know what the hell to do with such contingency; such, well, history right in our faces.
Now I for one fear that certain more utopian factions might take over the rather inchoate uprisings. That's never good for the real people who tend to get mowed under as necessary sacrifices for the Great Utopia That Is Coming. If that happens, it's likely that the Copts and other Christians in the country will be in grave danger; but, then again, so will just about everyone else.
Then again, my fears could be unfounded. This could lead to a freer Egypt, though just what the particulars of that would be is anybody's guess. That's the point - we just don't know what's going on, let alone what will happen.
What I do know is that this is one more blow to our dreams of hegemony. I also wouldn't be surprised if this results in even greater crackdowns here in the US on air and rail travel as well as subversive speech. We are a terrified people, you see, and so obsessed with security that the chaos and contingency erupting out of the Mediterranean could finally scare us into embracing a fully formed soft fascism. I hope I'm wrong about that, but I'm not really that hopeful about our future as a civil nation.
Last night I had a fascinating conversation with a fellow from Northern Ireland who said he felt that State power was greater, and more threatening, than at any time he's known. He said that we should start worrying when we hear folks say, 'If you're not doing anything wrong, you have nothing to be afraid of', as a justification for the ever-tightening security net in this country. Well, I hear that all the time. Pay no never mind to the fact that more and more we're criminalizing basic human behavior, and allowing ourselves to be monitored and searched as though we were all suspects and not citizens - as long as you do no wrong, you don't have anything to worry about, until, that is, we decide that what you're doing is wrong.
So you see, the revolutionary unrest in Egypt and other far away lands could have serious, and subtle, effects on our daily lives. We wring our hands over the price of oil - 'What about the Suez canal?' - and fail to see all around us the tightening noose of a Security State. Again, I worry that this process will only accelerate as we panic over the spectre of uncontrollable contingency - i.e., history - spilling over once again into our happy kingdom of order and prosperity. This horror at history accounts for our dull-witted policy in the Middle East, and thus our muddled response to the revolution unfolding before us. We are, it would seem, about to lose our innocence once again, as we learn, perhaps for the last time, that history has not in fact come to an end.
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