'Out of the cradle, endlessly rocking...'

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

a little armchair geopolitical analysis...

     So, after reading a little, this is what I make of the Syrian war.


     Consider - Russia has contracts to supply various arms to the Syrian government, and intends to honor those contracts. 
     The United States has decided to start sending arms and other support to the various factions fighting the Syrian government in the civil war. Never mind that these various factions are themselves murderous, often mercenary, and given to reigns of terror over populations they subdue. (We shall be especially determined to ignore ties to Al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups that hate us.) 
     No, let's look at the diagram for a moment, and ponder the one or two degrees of separation that will keep it from being an outright conflict between Russia (with China?) and the US. 
     Scared yet?
     Well, consider also that the US will be perceived as having chosen to support the Sunnis in a wider Sunni-Shi'ite regional war. (That wider war is already in motion as the fighting spreads to Lebanon. Jordan is next I dare say.) That places the US in a proxy war with Iran and gang as well. Such a proxy war brings the US and Russia even closer to direct confrontation.
     The wild card, of course, is Israel - if they attack Iran, all hell breaks loose. 
     Control of the New Silk Road - thousands of miles of pipelines across central Asia - is at stake as well, so Russia, China, and the US have a stake in the outcome of a wider sectarian war in the region.
     Sigh.
     I have to work now, when I'd much rather stare into space and drink scotch. Pray, my friends, pray harder than you have ever prayed in your lives.
     

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